TY  - BOOK
AU  - Nate Silver
AU  - Nate Silver
TI  - The signal and the noise:  : the art and science of prediction
SN  - 9781846147524
U1  - 519.542 SIL 
PY  - 2012///
CY  - London 
PB  - : Allen Lane
KW  - Forecasting
KW  - Bayesian statistical decision theory
KW  - Forecasting--Methodology
N1  - 	A catastrophic failure of prediction --
Are you smarter than a television pundit? --
All I care about is W's and L's --
For years you've been telling us that rain is green --
Desperately seeking signal --
How to frown in three feet of water --
Role models --
Less and less and less wrong --
Rage against the machines --
The poker bubble --
If you can't beat 'em ... --
A climate of healthy skepticism --
What you don't know can hurt you
N2  - 	
Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future -- Yet from the global financial crisis to 9/11 to the Fukushima disaster, we often fail to foresee hugely significant events -- In "The Signal and the Noise", the "New York Times'" political forecaster and statistics guru Nate Silver explores the art of
ER  -