000			01452nam a22002057a 4500
005			20180919132450.0
008			180919b xxu||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
020			_a9781846147524
082			_a519.542 SIL
100			_aNate Silver
245			_aThe signal and the noise _b : the art and science of prediction _c/Nate Silver
260			_aLondon _b: Allen Lane _c, 2012.
300			_a534 pages _c; 23 cm
505			_a A catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit? -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to frown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em ... -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you.
520			_a Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future -- Yet from the global financial crisis to 9/11 to the Fukushima disaster, we often fail to foresee hugely significant events -- In "The Signal and the Noise", the "New York Times'" political forecaster and statistics guru Nate Silver explores the art of
650			_aForecasting
655			_aBayesian statistical decision theory _bForecasting--Methodology
700			_aNate Silver
942			_cCPT
999			_c50213 _d50213