Perception and misperception in international politics / Robert Jervis.

Machine generated contents note: pt. I The Setting --
ch. One Perception and the Level of Analysis Problem --
Do Perceptions Matter? --
The International Environment --
Compulsion in Extreme Circumstances? --
Domestic Determinants --
The Bureaucracy --
Perceptions, Reality, and a Two-Step Model --
ch. Two External Stimuli, Internal Processes, and Intentions --
Introduction --
External versus Internal Sources of Behavior --
Intentions --
Inaccurate Predictions about One's Own Behavior --
ch. Three Deterrence, the Spiral Model, and Intentions of the Adversary --
Two Views of International Relations and the Cold War --
Deterrence --
The Spiral Model --
Psychological Dynamics --
Self-Fulfilling Prophecies and Problems with Incrementalism --
Self-Defeating Power --
Prescriptions --
Universal Generalizations? --
Evidence against the Spiral Model --
Evidence against Deterrence --
Deterrence and World War II; Spiral Model and World War I --
Note continued: When Will Force and Threats Work? The Decision-Maker's Choice --
When Will Force and Threats Work? Hypotheses --
Perceptions of Intention and Analyses of What Is at Stake --
Other Explanations for the Differences between the Spiral and Deterrence Theories --
Differences in Values --
Claims for a Dominant Strategy --
Dangers of Applying Gradualism to an Aggressive Adversary --
Suggestions --
pt. II Processes of Perception --
ch. Four Cognitive Consistency and the Interaction between Theory and Data --
Consistency: Rational and Irrational --
Rational Consistency --
Cognitive-Affective Balance --
Source-Message Interaction --
Implications --
Irrational Consistency-Avoidance of Value Trade-Offs --
Assimilation of Information to Pre-existing Beliefs --
The Impact of Expectations on Perceptions --
The Necessary Interdependence of Facts and Theories --
The Interdependence between Facts and Theories in Science --
The Impact of Categorization --
Note continued: Different Theories, Different Perceptions --
The Emergence of New Theories and Images --
Cognitive Distortion and Implications for Decision-Making --
Failure to Recognize the Influence of Pre-Existing Beliefs --
Excessive and Premature Cognitive Closure --
Implications for Decision-Making --
Confidence, Commitment, and Ambiguity --
Implications for Decision-Making --
ch. Five The Impact of the Evoked Set --
Evoked Set in the Absence of Communication --
Communication and Estimating the Evoked Set of the Other --
Misunderstandings within a Government: Differences in Information, Perspectives, and Time Lags --
Uneven Distribution of Information within Governments --
Differences in Evoked Set Caused by Differences in Concerns --
Conclusions --
ch. Six How Decision-Makers Learn from History --
Introduction --
Lessons as Predispositions --
Alternative Explanations --
The Learning Process --
Organizational Learning --
Events from Which People Learn Most --
Note continued: Firsthand Experiences --
Some Consequences --
Alternative Explanations --
Early Experiences and Generational Effects --
Generational Effects --
Alternative Explanations --
Delayed Impact on Policy --
Events Important to the Person's State or Organization --
Revolutions --
The Last War --
Range of Available Alternative Analogies --
What Lessons Do People Learn? --
Impact of Constant Factors --
Lessons about Specific Actors --
Reactions to Failure --
Nothing Fails like Success --
Alternative Explanations --
Summary --
Appendix: The Impact of Domestic Politics and Training on Perceptual Predispositions --
Learning from Domestic Politics --
Training --
ch. Seven Attitude Change --
Introduction --
Mechanisms of Attitude Preservation and Change --
Centrality --
The Rate at Which Discrepant Information Is Received --
Beliefs Especially Resistant to Discrepant Information --
pt. III Common Misperceptions --
ch. Eight Perceptions of Centralization --
Note continued: Unity and Planning --
Plans, Not Accidents and Confusion --
One Actor, Not Several --
Special Cases --
Variables Encouraging the Perception of Unity and Planning --
Being Misinformed about One's Own Behavior --
Misinformation about Physical Effects --
Disobedience by Agents --
Causes of Disobedience --
Types of Disobedience --
Consequences of Lack of Awareness of Agents' Behavior --
Consequences of Perceptions of Unity and Planning --
ch. Nine Overestimating One's Importance as Influence or Target --
Introduction --
Overestimating One's Effectiveness --
Perceptions of Influence and Turning Points --
Injury and Perceptions of the Other's Autonomy --
Belief that the Other Understands that You Are Not a Threat --
ch. Ten The Influence of Desires and Fears on Perceptions --
Wishful Thinking --
Experiments: Lack of Incentives for Accuracy --
Desires or Expectations? --
Direct Impact of Affect --
Experimental Manipulation of Affect --
Note continued: Judgments of Desirability and Probability --
Other Experiments --
Wishful Thinking in International Relations --
Perceptions of Danger: Vigilance or Defense? --
Avoidance of Perceptions of Extreme Probabilities --
Summary --
ch. Eleven Cognitive Dissonance and International Relations --
Cognitive Dissonance Theory --
Cognitive Dissonance and Inertia --
The Magnitude of Dissonance --
The Impact of Spending Resources --
Incentives and Compulsion --
Boomerang Effects --
Summary --
pt. IV In Lieu of Conclusions --
ch. Twelve Minimizing Misperception --
Making Assumptions and Predictions Explicit --
Devil's Advocates --
Conversions --
Identities and Missions --
Awareness of Common Misperceptions.